I am going for a horse who put up a career best performance here over fences, and I'm hoping the return to the course will see a return to form.
This 7 year old gelding was pretty impressive when winning here over fences back in May, always travelling well, and powering clear when taking up the running just before the final fence. The third and fourth in that race have won multiple times since (Sir Tivo is now 25lb higher rated), so it worked out well.
The handicapper hit him hard for that win, putting him up a whopping 11lb, and it was just a bit too much for him in his two subsequent chase starts. We saw him returning to hurdles at the end of July, where he was well supported in the betting once more, and although he travelled well in to the race, his finishing effort petered out on the rain softened ground, which he doesn't have any form on.
His mark has now fallen back to 83, the same as his romp here over fences, so returned to the course of his best performance, combined with a quick ground again, I like to think we will see a return to form.
My suggestion is 0.5pts EW.
This 7 year old was super consistent last season, and I think the handicapper should have put him up a few lbs for his latest success here, as even though the horse in front fell, the race wasn't over and they had drawn well clear of the field. He needed his first run last season, so I'm hoping for the same again.
The best horse racing tipsters will often suggest the number of points you should stake on each bet. For example, a two-point win, or a one point each way bet. This method can be used for all levels of horse racing bettor, as you decide how much each betting point is worth.
If you start with a total betting pot of £50, each point is worth 50p. If you start with £100, each point is worth £1. Simply divide your total betting pot by 100 to work out how much each point is worth.
Once you boost your betting bank by 50% with winnings, you should increase your point value accordingly. For example, if you build up 150 points, your point value should increase by 50%, so £1 becomes £1.50 and £5 becomes £7.50.
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