I am going for a horse shot that would have an outstanding chance if replicating his course and distance performance from back in April.
I know this 9-year-old gelding has probably frustrated his followers with how close he has gone without winning, and if he was running over a shorter trip, then I wouldn’t look twice at him.
However, he has only had one run beyond 20.5f, when running over today’s course and distance (23f) where he was only collared late on by a progressive horse who won his next two races and is now 20lb higher rated. It was 8l back to the third that day, and even that horse has won twice since and is now 12lb higher rated.
For some reason they dropped the selection down in trip by almost a mile, where it was far too sharp, but he ran an OK third, and it was a similar story over 20.5f on his last run too.
He’s only 1lb higher than the Course and Distance run, and hopefully he’s been freshened up by a break, so I’m interested to see what he can do again back at this distance.
My suggestion is 0.5pt EW at 11/1.
This 7-year-old could easily bomb as he hasn’t achieved a whole bunch under rules, but his form in Ireland doesn’t make a mark of 85 (with the claim) look insurmountable. He could be one for fences as he is a bit of a beast, but he is the one horse in this race that scares me as the stable switch could bring about some big improvement.
The best horse racing tipsters will often suggest the number of points you should stake on each bet. For example, a two-point win, or a one point each way bet. This method can be used for all levels of horse racing bettor, as you decide how much each betting point is worth.
If you start with a total betting pot of £50, each point is worth 50p. If you start with £100, each point is worth £1. Simply divide your total betting pot by 100 to work out how much each point is worth.
Once you boost your betting bank by 50% with winnings, you should increase your point value accordingly. For example, if you build up 150 points, your point value should increase by 50%, so £1 becomes £1.50 and £5 becomes £7.50.
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