Horse Racing

7 May 2011: Kentucky Derby Tips and Betting

Our racing attention turns to the United States at the weekend for the 137^th running of the Kentucky Derby. Just a month ago it seemed as if Uncle Mo would be untouchable in this race, however following the last of lead up events, this race has been blown wide open with a number of chances staking there claim. This is sure to be a classic race, and we take you through the field in to bring you all the information on each runner.

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1. Archarcharch (Jockey: J Court/Trainer: W Fires)  odds: 10/1

The winner of the Arkansas Derby has met with late support over the past couple of days. He has proven he has staying ability and the inside gate means he should get a nice run in the race. One of the top picks.

2. Brilliant Speed (J Rosario/T Albertrani) 30/1

Won the Blue Grass stakes at his last start and his breeding suggests he’ll get the trip. Has shown inconsistency in his eight race career, but if he gets a fast pace on front he will be finishing strongly.

3. Twice the Appeal (C Borel/J Bonde) 20/1

Jockey Calvin Borel has proven himself to be a Derby master having won three of the last four. Has won three of his last four which means he is peaking at the right time. Although he is only three starts out of maiden grade which is a concern.

4. Stay Thirsty (R Dominguez/T Pletcher) 20/1

Finished well back in the Florida Derby and has been beaten by over a dozen lengths at his only tries in Grade 1 races. On the plus side he is bred to stay all day.

5. Decisive Moment (K Clark/J Arias) 30/1

Decisive Moment would win this race if it was awarded on looks as he is a big black flashy type. He has not missed the placing’s in his eight career runs, but this looks much tougher than any grade he has seen so far.

6. Comma to the Top (P Valenzuela/ P Miller) 30/1

The most experienced horse in the race with 13 race starts. The major query will be the distance as he was bred for speed. Won six times as a two year old but the extra journey will find him out here.

7. Pants On Fire  (A Napravnik/ K Breen) 20/1

Will come in dramatically if the track gets any rain as he is an absolute swimmer. Defeated Macho Mucho Man in the Louisiana Derby proving his staying credentials. A definite chance if rain arrives.

8. Dialed In (J Leparoux/N Zito) 4/1

Rocketed into Derby contention after a strong win in the Florida Derby. Is drawn perfectly to sit off the speed and finish with a swooping run. The biggest problem may be the lack of pace in the race.

9. Derby Kitten (J Castellano/M Maker) 30/1

Won the Lexington last start which forced the owners to have a re-think and send it to the Derby before the Preakness. Has an abysmal record on dirt tracks which is a major concern.

10. Twinspired (M Smith/M Maker) 30/1

The only grey horse in the field. Of his eight career starts seven have been in Graded races. He has a rock-solid constitution with the major query being his ability to sprint when the whips are cracking down the final straight.

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11. Master of Hounds (G Gomez/A O’Brien) 30/1

Aiden O’Brien’s Irish raider comes into this after running second in the UAE Derby. Has yet to race on dirt which is a massive concern, but he is bred to run the trip right out. He is the only horse in the race who has won over the Derby distance.

12. Santiva (S Bridgmohan/E Kenneally)

Stepped up in distance to the Blue Grass Stakes last start and found the journey too tough. Has won at Churchill Downs which is a plus.

13. Mucho Macho Man (R Maragh/R Ritvo) 12/1

Has never missed a place in a race and comes into this looking like a horse who wants further. Ran an encouraging third in the Louisiana Derby. He seems to be a little immature which may cost him on the big day.

14. Shackleford (J Castanon/D Romans) 12/1

Came within a half head of Dialed In in the Florida Derby, which is shaping as good form. Has raced at 1 1/8 mile at his last three starts which means he should be ready to tackle the Derby trip.

15. Midnight Interlude (V Espinoza/ B Baffert) 10/1

This Bob Baffert trained colt was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby at just his fourth race start. Although he was advantaged by being at the front of a slowly run race. He is bred to stay and his trainer Bob Baffert knows what it takes to win a Derby.

16. Animal Kingdom (R Albardo/HG Motion) 30/1

Won the Spiral Stakes over the nine furlongs, suggesting he can stay the trip. However this horse has not seen a dirt track in his fledgling four start career.

17. Soldat (A Garcia/ K McLaughlin) 12/1

Was finishing like a freight train when he was 5^th in the Florida Derby, and has won twice over the 1 1/8 mile journey. He may be ridden more forward as it is proven to be harder to come from the rear of the field on dirt tracks.

18. Uncle Mo (J Valazquez/T Pletcher) 9/2

Looked a good thing for the Derby a month ago, but after tasting defeat for the first time in the Wood Memorial and getting a nasty stomach virus this horse has been on the nose. There is no doubting the brilliance he showed as a two year old, but the distance and the virus have seen bettors turn their back on the one time favourite. Cannot be written off.

19. Nehro (C Nakatani/ S Asmussen) 6/1

Finished second in both the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies, both times he was finishing strongly. He will relish the step up in distance and will go straight back from the wide gate. Look for him finishing strongly.

20. Watch Me Go (R Bejarano/ K O’Connell) 50/1

He won the Tampa Bay Derby, but in a very slow time, and followed that up with a  disappointing 6^th in the Illinois Derby. May well go around as the roughest horse in the field.

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Tips.

5^th- Uncle Mo – Will give his backers a sight but will find the Derby a little too long.

4^th- Nehro – Will be finishing off strongly. Needs clear running in the straight

3^rd- Dialled In – Deserved Favorite after strong Florida win. Will be thereabouts.

2^nd- Soldat – Will relish the extra journey and will be flying home.

1^st- Archarcharch – Comes here in great form and will get the perfect run from the inside barrier.

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